The recent takeover of Syria by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led coalition has marked a significant turning point in the country’s history. With Bashar al-Assad’s regime now ousted, HTS has promised to establish a “salvation government” in Syria, paving the way for a new era of Islamist-oriented governance. HTS’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has made it clear that his primary goal is to free Syria from authoritarian rule and establish an Islamist government. While the details of this new government remain unclear, HTS has distanced itself from more extreme groups like ISIS, suggesting a more moderate approach to governance.
The HTS-led coalition’s takeover of Syria has significant implications for regional security. The potential for conflict between HTS and other regional actors, such as Turkey and Iran, is high. However, HTS’s more pragmatic approach to governance may help to mitigate these tensions.
In contrast to the Taliban’s transitional, deeply conservative, and non-negotiable governing system in Afghanistan, HTS’s approach is likely to be more flexible and accommodating. HTS has already begun to establish a governance structure in Syria, with a focus on providing basic services such as healthcare and education.
The International community will be closely watching the developments in Syria, with many questioning whether HTS’s governance model will be compatible with the country’s diverse population. However, with HTS’s more moderate approach to governance, there may be opportunities for engagement and cooperation.
The regional security dynamics in Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria present distinct challenges and opportunities. While the Taliban’s governance model in Afghanistan has been widely criticized, Iran’s Islamic Republic has been more pragmatic and flexible. HTS’s takeover of Syria presents a
new set of challenges and opportunities, with the potential for a more pragmatic and flexible approach to governance.
Role of the United States
The United States has been closely watching the developments in Syria, and has expressed concerns about the potential for extremist groups to flourish in the country. The US has also been critical of HTS’s ties to extremist groups, and has called on the group to distance itself from these organizations.
However, the US has also recognized that HTS is a more moderate group than ISIS, and has expressed a willingness to engage with the group in order to promote stability and security in Syria. The US has also provided humanitarian assistance to Syria, and has supported efforts to establish a functional and effective governance structure in the country.
Implications for Pakistan
The developments in Syria are likely to have significant implications for Pakistan. Pakistan has long been a key player in regional security dynamics, and has maintained close ties with a number of extremist groups in the region. The rise of HTS In Syria is likely to pose a challenge to Pakistan’s regional security strategy. Pakistan has traditionally maintained close ties with extremist groups in the region, but HTS’s more moderate approach to
governance may make it more difficult for Pakistan to maintain these ties.
Israel’s Role in Syria
Israel has been persistently attacking Syria, and has expressed concerns about the potential for extremist groups to flourish in the country. Israel has also been critical of HTS’s ties to extremist groups, and has called on the group to distance itself from these organizations. However, Israel has also recognized that HTS is a more moderate group than ISIS, and has expressed a willingness to engage with the group in order to promote stability and security in Syria. Israel has also provided humanitarian assistance to Syria, and has supported efforts to establish a functional and effective governance structure in the country.
Funding the Transition
Syria’s economy is in shambles, ranking 129 out of 196 states in terms of GDP, according to the World Bank. HTS, the group currently in control, has managed to raise revenue through taxation and tariffs on goods and relief passing through the Turkish border. However, it’s unclear whether they have the financial resources to support the economy and provide basic provisions in the short to medium term. One possible solution is for the international community to provide financial support, but this is complicated by the fact that Syria is on the US list of “countries that sponsor terrorism” and HTS is considered a“foreign terrorist organisation” by the EU, Turkiye, and the US. Experts believe that HTS can be incentivized to share power by linking sanction relief to political reforms. This could potentially unlock financial support from the international community.
Recommendations
The international community should engage with HTS in order to promote stability and security in Syria, providing humanitarian assistance, supporting efforts to establish a functional and effective governance structure, and encouraging HTS to distance itself from extremist groups.
Additionally, the international community should support humanitarian efforts to alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people, promote economic development by providing financial assistance, supporting infrastructure development, and encouraging investment in the country. Furthermore, the international community should encourage regional cooperation to promote stability and security in Syria, supporting efforts to establish a regional
security framework, encouraging dialogue between regional actors, and promoting cooperation on issues such as counter-terrorism and refugee resettlement. The international community should also monitor the situation closely to ensure that HTS is living up to its commitments to promote stability and security in the country, supporting the establishment of a functional and effective governance structure, and encouraging HTS to distance itself from extremist groups. Moreover, the international community should support the protection of human rights in Syria,
including the rights of women, children, and minority groups, and encourage regional actors to support stability and security in Syria. Finally, the international community should support the development of a long-term strategy for Syria that addresses the country’s complex political, economic, and social challenges.
In conclusion, the HTS-led coalition’s takeover of Syria marks a significant turning point in the country’s history. The US, Pakistan, and Israel will all play important roles in shaping the country’s future, and the implications of their actions will be far-reaching. The US will need to balance its concerns about extremist groups in Syria with its desire to promote stability and security in the country. Pakistan will need to adapt its regional security strategy to take into account the rise of HTS in Syria. And Israel will need to navigate its relationships with HTS and other extremist groups in the region.
Ultimately, the future of Syria will depend on the ability of these actors to work together to promote stability and security in the country. If they are successful, Syria may be able to establish a functional and effective governance structure, and may be able to promote economic development and growth. But if they are unsuccessful, the consequences could be severe, and the country could descend into chaos and instability.
