Climate change is a real danger that poses adverse impacts on ecosystems, economical and social systems of the countries throughout the world. Due to rising climate vulnerability, water supply and yields of crops in Pakistan’s central Punjab province, the country’s food basket, are in a precarious state. The focus of this paper is the effects of climate change on agriculture and water resources in Punjab wherein issues related to shift in rainfall regimes, declining ground water table and increase in temperature have been discussed. It outlines important information on price risks on fundamental crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane and how one can avoid the same. The implications drawn from the research accentuate the fact that there exists a serious need to come up with major changes in the management of water, funding for agriculture and policies regarding climate change resilience.
Introduction
Global warming and climate change are some of the complex issues facing the world today which has impact on environments, businesses, and communities. Among them South Asia is more sensitive to climate change especially in the agricultural sector which supports the food security. The agricultural belt of Pakistan’s Punjab that contributes over 60 per cent of the national agricultural produce, has been majorly affected due to change in the water availability and crop productiveness pattern due to climate change.
This article will endeavour to evaluate the various effects of climate change on the agriculture and water resources of Punjab with regards to selected crops, irrigation facilities and practices. It also discusses adjustment measures and policy measures in addressing these problems. The research aims at offering recommendations to the government and other relevant agencies in order to mitigate the extent of damage caused by climate change on the agri-food sector in the province. The data used here is from the published literature together with the global climate models, the government agriculture reports, and some previous analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources of Punjab. Previous and current studies on the changes in the precipitation regime, declining water table levels, crop productivity and the social-economic effects were evaluated to acquire a good understanding of the current situation. Special attention is paid to the choice of key crops and water management systems with references to other similar climatic conditions and identification of feasible measures for adaptation.
Case Study of Punjab:
Irrigation systems for Punjab is highly reliant to its agricultural industry which is one of the major sources of income and the use of water among them is commonly sourced from both surface and ground water. Crops that are grown in the region include and they are all affected by the effects of climate change namely; wheat, rice and sugarcane. These crops which are very crucial to food security and economic diversity in the province means that the issues brought by dynamic climatic conditions cannot be overlooked.
Temperature variation within a range is highly sensitive to key crops from Punjab in particular wheat cereal crop. Climate change is shortening the periods available for growth of wheat since temperatures continue to soar. This is supported by studies from the International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI which suggests a possible slash in yield by about 10-15 percent over the next twenty years because of increased temperatures. The effects of a shortened growing season not only the amount and quality of the wheat yield but it is also a threat to food security and economic stability.
The exploitation of groundwater resources in Punjab for irrigation requirement is at exploitative levels with water tables in the aquifers approaching critically low levels. The groundwater availability has also declined by more than 15% of the ten-year average the World Bank reported in 2021. This depletion, therefore, augments for the imperative need to enhance the efficiency of water management. Currently, there is poor irrigation systems in the province and common problems that are associated with it include evaporation and leakage. Use of conventional methods of flooding irrigation is on the decline in as far as current climatic conditions are concerned. Modern methods of irrigation, for example, the drip irrigation should be adopted because it is more appropriate in that it offers improved water application rates.
Some of the economic impacts of climate change include the following as they affect the majority of Punjab’s agricultural workers, the smallholder farmers. Crop productivity declines and increasing input prices reduce farmers’ revenues hence increasing poverty and hardship in the rural areas. This country’s climate impact on agriculture may lead to high expenditure that forces most farmers to forsake farming in urban areas. The migration of people to bigger provinces contributes to social and congestion problems in the urban areas thus straining the socioeconomic environment within the province.
In a nutshell, one of the major challenges that Punjab has to face because of climate change is the interrelated issues of declined agricultural productivity, water availability, and the soil health. Solving these problems need Herculean measures that encompasses the improvement in the conventional methods of irrigation, water conservation and soil conservation for sustaining the agricultural produce of Punjab in the long run.
Crop that relies heavily on rain for watering such as rice and sugarcane for instance are under highest risks due to erratic rainfall. Such crops need water at all the stages of growth, and have optimal irrigation, structural requirement satisfactorily met. In general, as stated by Pakistan Agricultural Research Council PARC the occurrences of droughts and heat waves are found to be more frequent and frequently impact rice and sugarcane crops. Many problems are observed in the monsoon regional climate because of the unorganized structure of rain and long spells of dry climate resulting in water shortage and low yield crops.
This has been worsened with changes in precipitation due to climate change hence making the management of water resource in Punjab dangerous. Over 90% of water is used by the province’s agriculture industry, it is sad that a big percentage of the water used in agriculture is obtained through groundwater. Climate change has also impacted on availability of water in the following ways: it has brought about shifting precipitation which has caused both floods and droughts. This uncertainty made water resources management more challenging, and threatens the future food production.
Adaptation Strategies and Policy Recommendations:
As envisaged from the climate change magnitude in Punjab, policy measures should not wait for long-term troubles to happen but should be put in place to solve both short term and future problems. Key strategies include:
That is why the use of such modern methods of irrigation as drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation must become the focus. It is suggested that more investment should be made on rainwater harvesting technology and laser land leveling to increase water use efficiency. More attention should be paid towards farming practices that can withstand the impacts of climate change, for instance, cultivation of crops that withstand drought, change of planting and harvesting periods according to climate predictions. Crop diversification is also useful in diversity risk created by monoculture farming as well as move away from it.
By enhancing the old irrigation structures, and adopting modern ways of improving the use of water Punjab will be able to counter the effects of the scarcity of water. Most of these improvements require enhancements of capacity-building activities aimed at developing farmers’ skills in sustainable agriculture. This is why Pakistan has to look for international cooperation to source out funding support and technology for climate adaptation initiatives. International donors such as the GCF, and others can have a great deal of importance in supporting and encouraging Pakistan for synthesizing the agricultural resilience.
Limitations of the Study:
As a result, this study uses literature review and model projections to undertake analysis. These render useful information, nevertheless, more research has to be conducted to come up with data relevant to the region as well as the possible approaches toward adaptation. A qualitative study that compares the effects of climate change on farmers and the levels of water table during the time of the field study would go a long way in developing the understanding of the problem.
Conclusion:
Climate change issues with focus on water resources and agricultural production are severally affected in Punjab. For this reason, there is a high probability of climate disruption especially in the region that relies more on irrigation. Measures have been taken to overcome these challenges, but a lot more is required within policy circles, information technology, and across borders. It is therefore important that Punjab embraces sustainable water management, climate-smart agriculture and socio-economic resilience to support sustainable growth of the agriculture business and therefore food security of Pakistan.
References:
- International Food Policy Research Institute (2020). Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in South Asia.
- Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (2019). Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Pakistan.
- World Bank (2021). Water Resources in South Asia: A Critical Analysis.
- Food and Agriculture Organization (2020). Soil Degradation and Sustainable Land Management in Pakistan.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Global Dynamic or its editorial team.
